Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
T1win 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Execration
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 16 games
Bane
RR · 12 games
Ogre Magi
RR · 9 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 8 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Bob · 8 games
Snapfire
RR · 8 games
Linaoften banned
Bob · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
463 picks · 274 bans
Mars
388 picks · 533 bans
Queen of Pain
369 picks · 503 bans
Weaver
355 picks · 475 bans
Death Prophet
304 picks · 473 bans
Kunkka
286 picks · 513 bans
Ember Spirit
269 picks · 336 bans
Grimstroke
267 picks · 188 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 29%
Hero pool strength55% T1
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total83% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:9
T1 83%Execration 17%
The model gave 83% on T1 — the game was taken by Execration in 28:01.
Game 2prediction missed34:19
T1 83%Execration 17%
The model gave 83% on T1 — the game was taken by Execration in 34:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 83%
Series resultT1 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2