BTS Pro Series Season 10. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
T1loss 0:2series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Lilgunwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
538 picks · 388 bans
Queen of Pain
450 picks · 541 bans
Mars
449 picks · 653 bans
Weaver
433 picks · 849 bans
Snapfire
349 picks · 180 bans
Spirit Breaker
346 picks · 550 bans
Kunkka
339 picks · 542 bans
Wraith King
276 picks · 315 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% T1
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total81% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:33
T1 81%Lilgun 19%
The model gave 81% on T1 — the game was taken by Lilgun in 38:46.
Game 2prediction missed47:35
T1 81%Lilgun 19%
The model gave 81% on T1 — the game was taken by Lilgun in 52:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 81%
Series resultLilgun 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2