Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
T1loss 1:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Neon Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Neon Esports
Troll Warlordsignature
Natsumi · 8 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Skem · 7 games
Pucksignature
Skem · 7 games
Miranasignature
Skem · 6 games
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 6 games
Elder Titan
Jaunuel · 5 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Jaunuel · 5 games
Sand Kingoften banned
PlayHard · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
323 picks · 660 bans
Void Spirit
307 picks · 377 bans
Mars
259 picks · 453 bans
Earth Spirit
243 picks · 200 bans
Rubick
215 picks · 112 bans
Nyx Assassin
209 picks · 625 bans
Death Prophet
205 picks · 309 bans
Keeper of the Light
205 picks · 415 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 76%
Hero pool strength62% Neon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:33
T1 40%Neon Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 57:01.
Game 2prediction correct40:14
T1 40%Neon Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 47:38.
Game 3prediction correct36:8
T1 40%Neon Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 43:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 60%
Series resultNeon Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3