BTS Pro Series Season 10. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
T1loss 1:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Neon Esportsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Neon Esports
Tidehuntersignature
Enryu · 22 games
Lionsignature
NARMAN · 20 games
Marssignature
Enryu · 20 games
Kunkkaoften banned
MamangDaya · 15 games
Queen of Painsignature
Mikoto · 15 games
Weaveroften banned
NARMAN · 14 games
Gyrocopter
Unknown- · 13 games
Mirana
NARMAN · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
544 picks · 368 bans
Queen of Pain
476 picks · 570 bans
Mars
445 picks · 600 bans
Weaver
424 picks · 777 bans
Snapfire
364 picks · 175 bans
Kunkka
344 picks · 542 bans
Spirit Breaker
342 picks · 571 bans
Wraith King
286 picks · 347 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 42%
Hero pool strength55% Neon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total58% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:31
T1 58%Neon Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on T1 — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 48:31.
Game 2prediction missed37:20
T1 58%Neon Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on T1 — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 36:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 58%
Accuracy by game0 of 2