Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
T1loss 0:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Polaris Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Polaris Esports
Pangoliersignature
Force · 15 games
Lionsignature
cml · 12 games
Marsoften banned
Force · 11 games
Kunkkasignature
Mac · 10 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 9 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 9 games
Grimstrokesignature
Boomy · 9 games
Snapfiresignature
Boomy · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
444 picks · 283 bans
Queen of Pain
402 picks · 507 bans
Weaver
363 picks · 521 bans
Mars
350 picks · 499 bans
Kunkka
290 picks · 480 bans
Spirit Breaker
256 picks · 476 bans
Wraith King
251 picks · 338 bans
Snapfire
247 picks · 101 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 61%
Hero pool strength59% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed3:24
T1 60%Polaris Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on T1 — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 28:35.
Game 2prediction missed15:6
T1 60%Polaris Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on T1 — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 36:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 60%
Series resultPolaris Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2