The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
T1loss 1:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Polaris Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Polaris Esports
Pangoliersignature
Nevermine · 18 games
Tiny
Boomy · 18 games
Marsoften banned
Nevermine · 15 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Boomy · 13 games
Snapfiresignature
Boomy · 13 games
Death Prophetsignature
Mac · 11 games
Marcioften banned
Boomy · 11 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Natsumi · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
699 picks · 548 bans
Dawnbreaker
496 picks · 647 bans
Marci
495 picks · 763 bans
Puck
473 picks · 977 bans
Winter Wyvern
369 picks · 423 bans
Zeus
319 picks · 400 bans
Snapfire
298 picks · 152 bans
Razor
295 picks · 545 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total52% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:14
T1 52%Polaris Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on T1 — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 53:51.
Game 2prediction missed15:25
T1 52%Polaris Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on T1 — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 39:07.
Game 3prediction missed16:30
T1 52%Polaris Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on T1 — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 50:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 52%
Series resultPolaris Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3