WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
T1win 2:1series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Quincy Crewloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
411 picks · 210 bans
Mars
405 picks · 627 bans
Puck
384 picks · 961 bans
Snapfire
363 picks · 202 bans
Grimstroke
361 picks · 341 bans
Tiny
313 picks · 226 bans
Centaur Warrunner
280 picks · 382 bans
Tusk
269 picks · 199 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% T1
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Quincy Crew
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:12
T1 34%Quincy Crew 66%
The model gave 66% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Quincy Crew in 42:07.
Game 2prediction correct19:18
T1 34%Quincy Crew 66%
The model gave 66% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Quincy Crew in 42:55.
Game 3prediction correct24:23
T1 34%Quincy Crew 66%
The model gave 66% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Quincy Crew in 39:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteQuincy Crew · 66%
Series resultT1 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3