Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
T1loss 1:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
RSGwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
RSG
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
472 picks · 657 bans
Tiny
468 picks · 441 bans
Bane
452 picks · 275 bans
Sand King
414 picks · 564 bans
Dragon Knight
407 picks · 488 bans
Storm Spirit
400 picks · 653 bans
Pangolier
367 picks · 569 bans
Grimstroke
344 picks · 295 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% T1
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:45
T1 58%RSG 42%
The model gave 58% on T1 — the game was taken by RSG in 58:39.
Game 2prediction missed20:48
T1 58%RSG 42%
The model gave 58% on T1 — the game was taken by RSG in 34:15.
Game 3prediction missed20:30
T1 58%RSG 42%
The model gave 58% on T1 — the game was taken by RSG in 32:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 58%
Series resultRSG 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3