OGA Dota PIT Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
T1win 2:1series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SG e-sportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
379 picks · 171 bans
Hoodwink
349 picks · 127 bans
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 521 bans
Lina
258 picks · 426 bans
Dragon Knight
254 picks · 343 bans
Winter Wyvern
248 picks · 243 bans
Luna
247 picks · 341 bans
Terrorblade
236 picks · 495 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 47%
Hero pool strength50% T1
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:16
T1 73%SG e-sports 27%
The model gave 73% on T1 — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 28:35.
Game 2prediction missed26:12
T1 73%SG e-sports 27%
The model gave 73% on T1 — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 32:34.
Game 3prediction missed19:6
T1 73%SG e-sports 27%
The model gave 73% on T1 — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 23:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 73%
Series resultT1 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3