The International 2022: Last Chance · BO2
result vs prediction
T1loss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Team Liquid
Tiny
miCKe · 23 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 18 games
Marcioften banned
Boxi · 17 games
Razorsignature
zai · 16 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Boxi · 14 games
Lone Druidoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 13 games
Bristlebackoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 12 games
Marsoften banned
zai · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
553 picks · 428 bans
Marci
455 picks · 643 bans
Dawnbreaker
341 picks · 459 bans
Puck
338 picks · 758 bans
Death Prophet
296 picks · 492 bans
Winter Wyvern
292 picks · 370 bans
Batrider
254 picks · 817 bans
Dazzle
251 picks · 160 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 24%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:31
T1 45%Team Liquid 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 40:53.
Game 2prediction correct34:10
T1 45%Team Liquid 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 29:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 55%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2