Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
T1win 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team SMGloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Team SMG
Earthshaker
AhFu · 17 games
Banesignature
Roddgeee · 13 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Moon · 13 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 10 games
Grimstroke
AhFu · 8 games
Linasignature
Moon · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Moon · 7 games
Elder Titan
AhFu · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
432 picks · 263 bans
Queen of Pain
377 picks · 494 bans
Mars
357 picks · 503 bans
Weaver
348 picks · 484 bans
Kunkka
281 picks · 486 bans
Death Prophet
264 picks · 409 bans
Grimstroke
260 picks · 176 bans
Ember Spirit
249 picks · 298 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 36%
Hero pool strength53% Team SMG
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total81% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:10
T1 81%Team SMG 19%
The model gave 81% on T1 — the game was taken by Team SMG in 29:13.
Game 2prediction missed18:33
T1 81%Team SMG 19%
The model gave 81% on T1 — the game was taken by Team SMG in 39:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 81%
Series resultT1 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2