Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
T1win 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vice Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Vice Esports
Marsoften banned
Enryu · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 3 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Bob · 3 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Enryu · 2 games
Brewmaster
Enryu · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 2 games
Iooften banned
Palos · 2 games
Juggernautoften banned
Palos · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
253 picks · 526 bans
Void Spirit
234 picks · 284 bans
Mars
210 picks · 382 bans
Earth Spirit
199 picks · 154 bans
Keeper of the Light
171 picks · 297 bans
Phoenix
167 picks · 193 bans
Nyx Assassin
165 picks · 528 bans
Wraith King
159 picks · 210 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 42%
Hero pool strength53% T1
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:40
T1 61%Vice Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on T1 — the game was taken by Vice Esports in 29:50.
Game 2prediction missed5:31
T1 61%Vice Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on T1 — the game was taken by Vice Esports in 15:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 61%
Series resultT1 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2