FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTMTaiLung Mafiawin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HunterZloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TaiLung Mafia
No games played over 6 months.
HunterZ
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lumière · 2 games
Clockwerk
Mjz · 1 game
Earthshakeroften banned
Mjz · 1 game
Phoenix
Prada · 1 game
Shadow Demon
Prada · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
289 picks · 705 bans
Shadow Shaman
276 picks · 177 bans
Disruptor
257 picks · 235 bans
Dawnbreaker
255 picks · 657 bans
Tusk
248 picks · 250 bans
Pugna
245 picks · 255 bans
Dark Willow
244 picks · 103 bans
Marci
244 picks · 625 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength59% HunterZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% HunterZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:33
TaiLung Mafia 45%HunterZ 55%
The model gave 55% on HunterZ — the game was taken by HunterZ in 42:40.
Game 2prediction missed43:28
TaiLung Mafia 45%HunterZ 55%
The model gave 55% on HunterZ — the game was taken by TaiLung Mafia in 1:09:22.
Game 3prediction missed38:12
TaiLung Mafia 45%HunterZ 55%
The model gave 55% on HunterZ — the game was taken by TaiLung Mafia in 40:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteHunterZ · 55%
Series resultTaiLung Mafia 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3