FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTMTaiLung Mafiawin 2:0
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PPPerrito Panzonloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TaiLung Mafia
No games played over 6 months.
Perrito Panzon
Phoenix
MoOz · 5 games
Tidehunteroften banned
K1 · 4 games
Ancient Apparition
Elmisho · 3 games
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 3 games
Phantom Assassin
K1 · 3 games
Axeoften banned
Frank · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 2 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Elmisho · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
316 picks · 784 bans
Disruptor
315 picks · 290 bans
Shadow Shaman
272 picks · 171 bans
Dawnbreaker
269 picks · 740 bans
Pugna
269 picks · 300 bans
Tusk
265 picks · 248 bans
Marci
261 picks · 762 bans
Snapfire
261 picks · 127 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength59% Perrito Panzon
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Perrito Panzon
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
TaiLung Mafia 31%Perrito Panzon 69%
The model gave 69% on Perrito Panzon — the game was taken by TaiLung Mafia.
Game 2prediction missed
TaiLung Mafia 31%Perrito Panzon 69%
The model gave 69% on Perrito Panzon — the game was taken by TaiLung Mafia.
Model check result
Model favoritePerrito Panzon · 69%
Series resultTaiLung Mafia 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2