FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs predictionTMTaiLung Mafialoss 1:3
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:3
PPPerrito Panzonwin 3:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TaiLung Mafia
No games played over 6 months.
Perrito Panzon
Phoenixsignature
MoOz · 6 games
Disruptor
MoOz · 4 games
Tidehunteroften banned
K1 · 4 games
Ancient Apparition
Elmisho · 3 games
Clockwerk
Elmisho · 3 games
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 3 games
Phantom Assassin
K1 · 3 games
Puckoften banned
PiPi · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
415 picks · 374 bans
Snapfire
378 picks · 191 bans
Puck
342 picks · 886 bans
Pugna
313 picks · 357 bans
Tusk
285 picks · 234 bans
Warlock
280 picks · 136 bans
Batrider
278 picks · 677 bans
Dawnbreaker
276 picks · 804 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 63%
Hero pool strength59% Perrito Panzon
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% Perrito Panzon
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:12
TaiLung Mafia 46%Perrito Panzon 54%
The model gave 54% on Perrito Panzon — the game was taken by TaiLung Mafia in 39:18.
Game 2prediction correct4:19
TaiLung Mafia 46%Perrito Panzon 54%
The model gave 54% on Perrito Panzon — the game was taken by Perrito Panzon in 22:41.
Game 3prediction correct18:31
TaiLung Mafia 46%Perrito Panzon 54%
The model gave 54% on Perrito Panzon — the game was taken by Perrito Panzon in 1:07:37.
Game 4prediction correct13:28
TaiLung Mafia 46%Perrito Panzon 54%
The model gave 54% on Perrito Panzon — the game was taken by Perrito Panzon in 41:25.
Model check result
Model favoritePerrito Panzon · 54%
Series resultPerrito Panzon 1:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4