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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Army Geniusesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusk
Q · 29 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 25 games
68%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 24 games
75%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 18 games
72%
Rubick
Rubick
Q · 17 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 16 games
81%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 16 games
81%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
23savage · 15 games
60%

Army Geniuses

Tiny
Tinysignature
Jhocam · 17 games
71%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Varizh · 12 games
75%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
db- · 12 games
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Yowe · 10 games
70%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Varizh · 10 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
Jhocam · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yowe · 8 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Varizh · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
695 picks · 596 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
553 picks · 488 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
439 picks · 1078 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
431 picks · 766 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 1012 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
377 picks · 202 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
375 picks · 540 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
372 picks · 817 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Talon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total76% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:11
Talon Esports 63%Army Geniuses 37%
The model gave 63% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 28:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorblade23savage
51% · 175 games57% · 128 games
Naga SireninYourdreaM
Naga Siren
Magnus
MagnusJabz
45% · 91 game53% · 275 games
Doomdb-
Doom
Pangolier
PangolierMikoto
53% · 280 games36% · 54 games
Winter WyvernYowe
Winter Wyvern
Techies
TechiesQ
44% · 102 games51% · 304 games
MiranaJhocam
Mirana
Silencer
SilencerOli
48% · 160 games55% · 47 games
VenomancerVarizh
Venomancer
Game 2prediction correct34:14
Talon Esports 66%Army Geniuses 34%
The model gave 66% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 37:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
Slark23savage
59% · 137 games47% · 276 games
Ember SpiritYowe
Ember Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterJabz
57% · 278 games34% · 90 games
MagnusinYourdreaM
Magnus
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMikoto
47% · 95 games40% · 77 games
Windrangerdb-
Windranger
Techies
TechiesQ
62% · 126 games50% · 226 games
UndyingJhocam
Undying
Lich
LichOli
52% · 70 games50% · 37 games
OracleVarizh
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 76%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2