DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 0:3series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:3
Aurora Gamingwin 3:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Morphlingsignature
Akashi · 18 games
Dragon Knightsignature
CHYuan · 13 games
Templar Assassinsignature
CHYuan · 11 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Ponyo · 11 games
Marssignature
Ws · 10 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Ponyo · 9 games
Batridersignature
Jhocam · 9 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Akashi · 9 games
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
387 picks · 636 bans
Lion
382 picks · 353 bans
Mars
375 picks · 599 bans
Techies
370 picks · 304 bans
Batrider
355 picks · 760 bans
Vengeful Spirit
349 picks · 347 bans
Tiny
339 picks · 380 bans
Hoodwink
332 picks · 201 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 35%
Hero pool strength60% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:20
Talon Esports 55%Aurora Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 1:07:49.
Game 2prediction missed17:22
Talon Esports 55%Aurora Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 49:33.
Game 3prediction missed9:30
Talon Esports 55%Aurora Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 37:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 55%
Series resultAurora Gaming 0:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3