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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
AVULUSloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 30 games
67%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Mikoto · 24 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 23 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 20 games
50%
Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 19 games
79%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ws · 18 games
72%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jhocam · 17 games
47%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Ws · 17 games
59%

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 44 games
68%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 40 games
65%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 39 games
62%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 31 game
77%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 31 game
61%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 29 games
55%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 29 games
52%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 27 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
493 picks · 425 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
453 picks · 537 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
447 picks · 557 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
446 picks · 565 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
435 picks · 232 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
423 picks · 786 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
395 picks · 436 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
388 picks · 586 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:38
Talon Esports 54%AVULUS 46%
The model gave 54% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by AVULUS in 27:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyMikoto
51% · 391 game45% · 362 games
MorphlingSmiling Knight
Morphling
Tidehunter
TidehunterWs
59% · 110 games49% · 101 game
EarthshakerStormstormer
Earthshaker
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterNatsumi
54% · 379 games51% · 163 games
DawnbreakerXibbe
Dawnbreaker
Zeus
ZeusKuku
44% · 93 games50% · 517 games
BatriderEkki
Batrider
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonJhocam
50% · 320 games48% · 150 games
LichSoNNeikO
Lich
Game 2prediction correct54:32
Talon Esports 52%AVULUS 48%
The model gave 52% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 43:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMikoto
42% · 129 games53% · 162 games
Ember SpiritStormstormer
Ember Spirit
Lifestealer
LifestealerNatsumi
48% · 126 games53% · 84 games
Dark SeerXibbe
Dark Seer
Phoenix
PhoenixWs
50% · 362 games51% · 154 games
Monkey KingSmiling Knight
Monkey King
Magnus
MagnusJhocam
55% · 211 games50% · 355 games
TinyEkki
Tiny
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanKuku
48% · 59 games50% · 132 games
LichSoNNeikO
Lich
Game 3prediction correct38:14
Talon Esports 52%AVULUS 48%
The model gave 52% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 40:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMikoto
41% · 157 games51% · 391 game
Dragon KnightSmiling Knight
Dragon Knight
Tiny
TinyNatsumi
53% · 511 games57% · 181 game
Ember SpiritStormstormer
Ember Spirit
Timbersaw
TimbersawWs
49% · 326 games47% · 110 games
Dark SeerXibbe
Dark Seer
Pugna
PugnaKuku
51% · 176 games46% · 290 games
PhoenixSoNNeikO
Phoenix
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanJhocam
52% · 71 game52% · 269 games
LionEkki
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 53%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3