DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:1
beastcoastloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Tusksignature
Q · 28 games
Tinysignature
Q · 21 game
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 20 games
Rubicksignature
Q · 18 games
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 16 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 16 games
Undyingoften banned
Oli · 15 games
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 14 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
951 picks · 640 bans
Tiny
657 picks · 456 bans
Nature's Prophet
570 picks · 911 bans
Tusk
551 picks · 441 bans
Treant Protector
536 picks · 530 bans
Snapfire
508 picks · 337 bans
Death Prophet
489 picks · 1071 bans
Clockwerk
461 picks · 343 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 63%
Hero pool strength62% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:15
Talon Esports 55%beastcoast 45%
The model gave 55% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 34:44.
Game 2prediction missed9:30
Talon Esports 55%beastcoast 45%
The model gave 55% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by beastcoast in 24:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2