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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 27 games
74%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 27 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kuku · 26 games
58%
Lina
Linasignature
Mikoto · 24 games
79%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Mikoto · 24 games
63%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mikoto · 23 games
57%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ws · 21 game
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 20 games
45%

BETBOOM TEAM

Muerta
Muertasignature
Save- · 33 games
61%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Save- · 29 games
62%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
gpK~ · 28 games
54%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Pure~ · 27 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 26 games
73%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Pure~ · 22 games
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Kataomi · 21 game
57%
Kunkka
Kunkka
MieRo · 21 game
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
473 picks · 449 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
439 picks · 504 bans
49%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
430 picks · 200 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
328 picks · 577 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
289 picks · 405 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
286 picks · 604 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
275 picks · 179 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
262 picks · 74 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 51%
Hero pool strength52% Talon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total60% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct3:24
Talon Esports 44%BETBOOM TEAM 56%
The model gave 56% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 21:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling23savage
46% · 271 game43% · 348 games
TerrorbladeKiritych
Terrorblade
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMikoto
46% · 246 games48% · 442 games
PangoliergpK~
Pangolier
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWs
51% · 313 games50% · 188 games
TidehunterMieRo
Tidehunter
Enigma
EnigmaKuku
63% · 106 games59% · 80 games
Naga SirenKataomi
Naga Siren
Ringmaster
RingmasterJhocam
40% · 150 games68% · 28 games
BaneSave-
Bane
Game 2prediction missed26:9
Talon Esports 45%BETBOOM TEAM 55%
The model gave 55% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 26:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMikoto
54% · 106 games53% · 225 games
Dark SeerMieRo
Dark Seer
Tiny
Tiny23savage
49% · 285 games45% · 153 games
LinaKiritych
Lina
Magnus
MagnusWs
54% · 109 games39% · 73 games
LeshracgpK~
Leshrac
Oracle
OracleKuku
58% · 46 games45% · 142 games
SvenKataomi
Sven
Tusk
TuskJhocam
52% · 134 games51% · 87 games
Chaos KnightSave-
Chaos Knight
Game 3prediction correct25:30
Talon Esports 47%BETBOOM TEAM 53%
The model gave 53% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 46:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Lina23savage
42% · 87 games46% · 139 games
SnipergpK~
Sniper
Pangolier
PangolierMikoto
50% · 242 games53% · 332 games
BristlebackKiritych
Bristleback
Magnus
MagnusWs
53% · 111 games57% · 13 games
AxeMieRo
Axe
Tusk
TuskJhocam
49% · 210 games55% · 40 games
OracleKataomi
Oracle
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanKuku
50% · 66 games51% · 192 games
WindrangerSave-
Windranger
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 60%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3