PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:1series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Bleed Esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Morphlingsignature
Akashi · 19 games
Dragon Knightsignature
CHYuan · 14 games
Hoodwinksignature
Jhocam · 11 games
Marssignature
Ws · 11 games
Templar Assassinsignature
CHYuan · 11 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Ponyo · 11 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Ponyo · 9 games
Batridersignature
Jhocam · 9 games
Bleed Esports
Faceless Voidsignature
JaCkky · 8 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
DJ · 7 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
DJ · 6 games
Lifestealeroften banned
JaCkky · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mikoto · 6 games
Enchantressoften banned
Poloson · 5 games
Rubick
DJ · 5 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
DJ · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
429 picks · 702 bans
Techies
406 picks · 325 bans
Mars
405 picks · 663 bans
Lion
397 picks · 361 bans
Batrider
389 picks · 858 bans
Tiny
389 picks · 493 bans
Rubick
361 picks · 168 bans
Vengeful Spirit
361 picks · 359 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 52%
Hero pool strength56% Talon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total76% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:27
Talon Esports 67%Bleed Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 39:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingAkashi
LifestealerJaCkky
LeshracCHYuan
HuskarEmo
MarsWs
Primal Beastzeal
LionJhocam
TechiesDJ
Elder TitanPonyo
Shadow DemonPoloson
Game 2prediction correct26:5
Talon Esports 66%Bleed Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 26:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracCHYuan
RazorJaCkky
MarsWs
PuckEmo
SlarkAkashi
Brewmasterzeal
Vengeful SpiritPonyo
HoodwinkDJ
TuskJhocam
DisruptorPoloson
Game 3prediction correct32:22
Talon Esports 66%Bleed Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 43:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordAkashi
LinaEmo
RazorCHYuan
SlarkJaCkky
MagnusWs
Marszeal
TinyJhocam
TuskDJ
PugnaPonyo
Vengeful SpiritPoloson
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 76%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3