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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusk
Q · 29 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 25 games
68%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 24 games
75%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 18 games
72%
Rubick
Rubick
Q · 17 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 16 games
81%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 16 games
81%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
23savage · 15 games
60%

BOOM Esports

Disruptor
Disruptor
xNova · 13 games
54%
Tusk
Tusk
xNova · 12 games
58%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Fbz · 9 games
78%
Mirana
Mirana
Xepher · 9 games
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Natsumi · 8 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 8 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Xepher · 8 games
25%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
xNova · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
697 picks · 598 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
570 picks · 494 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
463 picks · 1126 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
458 picks · 837 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
411 picks · 1054 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
388 picks · 553 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
388 picks · 844 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
387 picks · 212 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 63%
Hero pool strength56% Talon Esports
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total75% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:8
Talon Esports 64%BOOM Esports 36%
The model gave 64% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 30:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassin23savage
54% · 138 games50% · 113 games
BloodseekerNatsumi
Bloodseeker
Doom
DoomJabz
52% · 275 games49% · 282 games
PangolierYopaj
Pangolier
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMikoto
45% · 156 games50% · 152 games
Death ProphetMushi
Death Prophet
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerQ
49% · 84 games51% · 140 games
TechiesXepher
Techies
Pugna
PugnaOli
49% · 91 game52% · 57 games
OraclexNova
Oracle
Game 2prediction missed14:28
Talon Esports 63%BOOM Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 41:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Void23savage
52% · 159 games58% · 76 games
MedusaNatsumi
Medusa
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMikoto
44% · 190 games53% · 145 games
Ember SpiritYopaj
Ember Spirit
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerJabz
48% · 103 games51% · 191 game
PangolierMushi
Pangolier
Windranger
WindrangerQ
38% · 102 games56% · 116 games
TechiesXepher
Techies
Pugna
PugnaOli
52% · 115 games48% · 141 game
ClockwerkxNova
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed9:16
Talon Esports 63%BOOM Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 42:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorblade23savage
51% · 156 games51% · 93 games
Naga SirenNatsumi
Naga Siren
Doom
DoomJabz
56% · 224 games47% · 88 games
KunkkaYopaj
Kunkka
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMikoto
45% · 98 games54% · 95 games
MedusaMushi
Medusa
Enchantress
EnchantressQ
44% · 212 games54% · 144 games
TechiesXepher
Techies
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonOli
52% · 39 games48% · 309 games
MiranaxNova
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 75%
Series resultBOOM Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3