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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mikoto · 27 games
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 25 games
52%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Mikoto · 25 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 24 games
71%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ws · 23 games
61%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Jhocam · 23 games
78%
Lina
Linasignature
Mikoto · 22 games
77%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kuku · 22 games
55%

BOOM Esports

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mac · 26 games
54%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
JaCkky · 22 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Jaunuel · 21 game
62%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Mac · 20 games
55%
Lion
Lion
Tims · 19 games
53%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Fbz · 19 games
47%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
JaCkky · 18 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 18 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
563 picks · 633 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
486 picks · 247 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
461 picks · 424 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
399 picks · 844 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
376 picks · 561 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
374 picks · 434 bans
58%
Tusk
Tusk
372 picks · 325 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
355 picks · 831 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 56%
Hero pool strength54% Talon Esports
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total64% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:36
Talon Esports 58%BOOM Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 46:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter23savage
54% · 305 games58% · 151 game
SvenJaCkky
Sven
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerWs
40% · 180 games40% · 91 game
Queen of PainArmel
Queen of Pain
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
55% · 311 games47% · 406 games
PangolierJabz
Pangolier
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanJhocam
53% · 158 games49% · 329 games
BatriderJaunuel
Batrider
Oracle
OracleKuku
53% · 80 games52% · 57 games
RikiTims
Riki
Game 2prediction correct29:18
Talon Esports 59%BOOM Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 38:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMikoto
54% · 132 games37% · 67 games
SvenJaCkky
Sven
Tidehunter
Tidehunter23savage
52% · 162 games44% · 175 games
PangolierArmel
Pangolier
Axe
AxeWs
49% · 34 games44% · 130 games
BeastmasterJabz
Beastmaster
Bane
BaneKuku
68% · 48 games51% · 45 games
MiranaJaunuel
Mirana
Slark
SlarkJhocam
59% · 62 games52% · 21 game
Chaos KnightTims
Chaos Knight
Game 3prediction missed15:28
Talon Esports 57%BOOM Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 47:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tiny23savage
48% · 415 games48% · 106 games
RazorJaCkky
Razor
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMikoto
51% · 244 games44% · 132 games
Queen of PainArmel
Queen of Pain
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWs
49% · 278 games51% · 547 games
PangolierJabz
Pangolier
Slark
SlarkJhocam
45% · 60 games58% · 101 game
Naga SirenJaunuel
Naga Siren
Warlock
WarlockKuku
46% · 129 games59% · 240 games
Shadow ShamanTims
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 64%
Series resultBOOM Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3