ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CCastawakeloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Phoenix
Ponyo · 17 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Kuku · 15 games
Enchantressoften banned
Kuku · 15 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Akashi · 15 games
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 12 games
Sniperoften banned
Jhocam · 12 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 12 games
Dark Willowsignature
Jhocam · 11 games
Castawake
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
453 picks · 598 bans
Clockwerk
386 picks · 415 bans
Pangolier
330 picks · 474 bans
Luna
328 picks · 406 bans
Enchantress
308 picks · 597 bans
Dark Willow
299 picks · 160 bans
Dragon Knight
288 picks · 340 bans
Sand King
268 picks · 790 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:41
Talon Esports 86%Castawake 14%
The model gave 86% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 39:20.
Game 2prediction correct27:9
Talon Esports 86%Castawake 14%
The model gave 86% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 21:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 86%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2