The International 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 0:2series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Cloud9win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Razoroften banned
CHYuan · 17 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
CHYuan · 15 games
Morphlingoften banned
Akashi · 15 games
Leshracsignature
CHYuan · 14 games
Elder Titansignature
Ponyo · 13 games
Phoenixsignature
Ponyo · 13 games
Svensignature
Akashi · 13 games
Tinyoften banned
Jhocam · 13 games
Cloud9
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 39 games
Banesignature
Fishman · 27 games
Brewmastersignature
DM · 20 games
Disruptorsignature
Fishman · 17 games
Grimstrokesignature
Kataomi · 17 games
Leshracoften banned
No[o]ne · 17 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Kataomi · 17 games
Svenoften banned
Fishman · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
410 picks · 379 bans
Hoodwink
385 picks · 427 bans
Pangolier
370 picks · 538 bans
Jakiro
345 picks · 256 bans
Weaver
335 picks · 741 bans
Ember Spirit
317 picks · 643 bans
Tiny
315 picks · 753 bans
Phoenix
311 picks · 644 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 44%
Hero pool strength58% Cloud9
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Cloud9
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct3:22
Talon Esports 33%Cloud9 67%
The model gave 67% on Cloud9 — the game was taken by Cloud9 in 24:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingAkashi
Sand KingDM
SlardarWs
MiranaWatson
RazorMikoto
TinkerKataomi
BatriderJhocam
Monkey KingNo[o]ne
OmniknightPonyo
BaneFishman
Game 2prediction correct27:30
Talon Esports 33%Cloud9 67%
The model gave 67% on Cloud9 — the game was taken by Cloud9 in 47:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingAkashi
Drow RangerWatson
Sand KingWs
Dragon KnightNo[o]ne
SniperMikoto
KunkkaDM
LeshracJhocam
TinkerKataomi
EnchantressPonyo
ClockwerkFishman
Model check result
Model favoriteCloud9 · 78%
Series resultCloud9 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2