The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Entityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Marcioften banned
Q · 20 games
Tiny
Q · 16 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mikoto · 14 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 14 games
Bane
Hyde · 13 games
Enchantresssignature
Hyde · 13 games
Faceless Voidsignature
23savage · 13 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Hyde · 12 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
524 picks · 395 bans
Marci
466 picks · 711 bans
Death Prophet
304 picks · 473 bans
Undying
299 picks · 505 bans
Puck
291 picks · 696 bans
Dawnbreaker
279 picks · 394 bans
Enigma
263 picks · 847 bans
Batrider
256 picks · 881 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 51%
Hero pool strength52% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total72% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:22
Talon Esports 28%Entity 72%
The model gave 72% on Entity — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 43:40.
Game 2prediction missed36:13
Talon Esports 28%Entity 72%
The model gave 72% on Entity — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 34:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 72%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2