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Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Akashi · 15 games
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Ponyo · 13 games
54%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Akashi · 11 games
55%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Ponyo · 11 games
45%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Yowe · 10 games
70%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
CHYuan · 9 games
78%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Ponyo · 8 games
75%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Akashi · 8 games
50%

Execration

Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Bob · 7 games
57%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Bob · 5 games
80%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
cml · 5 games
40%
Lion
Lion
Shanks · 4 games
25%
Techies
Techies
cml · 4 games
75%
Tusk
Tusk
Shanks · 4 games
50%
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenoften banned
Tino- · 3 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
cml · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
380 picks · 352 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
339 picks · 336 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
322 picks · 526 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
318 picks · 473 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
307 picks · 237 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
296 picks · 560 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
296 picks · 175 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
282 picks · 253 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% Talon Esports
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total58% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:7
Talon Esports 53%Execration 47%
The model gave 53% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 27:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenAkashi
55% · 102 games51% · 48 games
LeshracBob
Leshrac
Timbersaw
TimbersawWs
42% · 161 game55% · 81 game
Gyrocopter423
Gyrocopter
Zeus
ZeusCHYuan
46% · 51 game54% · 136 games
MarsTino-
Mars
Lion
LionJhocam
46% · 217 games54% · 170 games
TinyShanks
Tiny
Bane
BanePonyo
43% · 36 games53% · 132 games
Shadow Demoncml
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct33:19
Talon Esports 56%Execration 44%
The model gave 56% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 39:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracCHYuan
55% · 96 games41% · 52 games
LinaBob
Lina
Sven
SvenAkashi
60% · 116 games47% · 158 games
Dragon KnightTino-
Dragon Knight
Doom
DoomWs
57% · 239 games60% · 64 games
Bounty Hunter423
Bounty Hunter
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonJhocam
50% · 138 games38% · 118 games
HoodwinkShanks
Hoodwink
Mirana
MiranaPonyo
50% · 195 games45% · 392 games
Rubickcml
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 58%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2