?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 33 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 28 games
61%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Mikoto · 26 games
65%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jhocam · 21 game
43%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ws · 20 games
65%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Ws · 19 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 19 games
47%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 19 games
68%

Execration

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Tino- · 15 games
60%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Tino- · 13 games
38%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Abat · 10 games
30%
Lich
Lichsignature
cml · 10 games
90%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 8 games
38%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Shanks · 8 games
63%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Shanks · 7 games
29%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Shanks · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
502 picks · 680 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
477 picks · 408 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
467 picks · 595 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
464 picks · 567 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
451 picks · 529 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
432 picks · 798 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
420 picks · 943 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
399 picks · 233 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 53%
Hero pool strength56% Talon Esports
Head-to-head5 – 0
Model total83% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:20
Talon Esports 68%Execration 32%
The model gave 68% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 39:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinNatsumi
46% · 33 games56% · 71 game
TerrorbladeAkashi
Terrorblade
Lina
LinaMikoto
48% · 34 games50% · 38 games
LycanTino-
Lycan
Tidehunter
TidehunterWs
56% · 28 games53% · 19 games
Spirit BreakerShanks
Spirit Breaker
Zeus
ZeusKuku
43% · 45 games46% · 20 games
Warlockcml
Warlock
Riki
RikiJhocam
49% · 8 games
Game 2prediction correct27:12
Talon Esports 68%Execration 32%
The model gave 68% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 31:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingNatsumi
45% · 272 games50% · 79 games
AlchemistAkashi
Alchemist
Lina
LinaMikoto
52% · 108 games49% · 124 games
MagnusTino-
Magnus
Abaddon
AbaddonWs
32% · 24 games54% · 194 games
ClockwerkShanks
Clockwerk
Venomancer
VenomancerKuku
56% · 29 games50% · 102 games
Pugnacml
Pugna
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanJhocam
54% · 66 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 83%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2