?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusk
Q · 29 games
59%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Q · 28 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 25 games
68%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 24 games
75%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Oli · 22 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mikoto · 19 games
68%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 18 games
72%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 18 games
83%

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 52 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 36 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 31 game
77%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 30 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 29 games
66%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 28 games
71%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ace · 28 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 28 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
725 picks · 532 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
595 picks · 515 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
557 picks · 1093 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
555 picks · 1243 bans
57%
Techies
Techies
532 picks · 587 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
470 picks · 938 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
468 picks · 1064 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
456 picks · 653 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 61%
Hero pool strength52% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:20
Talon Esports 31%Gaimin Gladiators 69%
The model gave 69% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 32:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernaut23savage
53% · 86 games50% · 120 games
LeshracQuinn
Leshrac
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightJabz
49% · 202 games51% · 189 games
Bloodseekerdyrachyo
Bloodseeker
Pangolier
PangolierMikoto
48% · 470 games52% · 109 games
UnderlordAce
Underlord
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerQ
51% · 120 games51% · 238 games
UndyingSeleri
Undying
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageOli
49% · 186 games47% · 408 games
RubicktOfu
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct10:25
Talon Esports 32%Gaimin Gladiators 68%
The model gave 68% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 36:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusa23savage
60% · 122 games51% · 136 games
BroodmotherAce
Broodmother
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
53% · 225 games56% · 126 games
Faceless Voiddyrachyo
Faceless Void
Mars
MarsJabz
45% · 208 games47% · 294 games
Ember SpiritQuinn
Ember Spirit
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageQ
46% · 172 games47% · 421 game
RubickSeleri
Rubick
Undying
UndyingOli
47% · 360 games50% · 110 games
PugnatOfu
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 80%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2