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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:0
InterActive Philippinesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kuku · 25 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 21 game
62%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Mikoto · 19 games
74%
Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 18 games
78%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 17 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 16 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kuku · 16 games
44%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Jhocam · 16 games
63%

InterActive Philippines

Lina
Linaoften banned
Nishababy · 3 games
67%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
0%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
468 picks · 383 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
426 picks · 545 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
387 picks · 489 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
374 picks · 609 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
374 picks · 201 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
365 picks · 413 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 585 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
343 picks · 868 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total95% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:9
Talon Esports 82%InterActive Philippines 18%
The model gave 82% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 26:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackWs
53% · 15 games43% · 107 games
LinaNishababy
Lina
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMikoto
59% · 13 games
Razor
RazorNatsumi
57% · 31 game
Zeus
ZeusKuku
58% · 8 games
Batrider
BatriderJhocam
59% · 40 games
Game 2prediction correct40:18
Talon Esports 83%InterActive Philippines 17%
The model gave 83% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 37:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterNatsumi
52% · 46 games54% · 147 games
Earth SpiritNishababy
Earth Spirit
Doom
DoomWs
39% · 29 games
Puck
PuckMikoto
43% · 19 games
Jakiro
JakiroKuku
47% · 11 games
Lion
LionJhocam
50% · 42 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 95%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2