Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KOBOLDSloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Dark Willow
Hyde · 4 games
Bane
Fly · 3 games
Elder Titan
kpii · 2 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
kpii · 2 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Gabbi · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
kpii · 2 games
Doomoften banned
kpii · 1 game
KOBOLDS
Wraith Kingoften banned
FortuneSoul · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
FortuneSoul · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
FortuneSoul · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
FortuneSoul · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tidehunter
262 picks · 385 bans
Mars
260 picks · 371 bans
Monkey King
254 picks · 607 bans
Bane
226 picks · 166 bans
Lina
217 picks · 466 bans
Void Spirit
215 picks · 259 bans
Lion
214 picks · 102 bans
Pangolier
209 picks · 252 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:31
Talon Esports 59%KOBOLDS 41%
The model gave 59% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 47:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaGabbi
MedusaFortuneSoul
Void SpiritMikoto
Doomkpii
GrimstrokeHyde
BaneFly
Game 2prediction correct34:8
Talon Esports 56%KOBOLDS 44%
The model gave 56% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 25:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeGabbi
Wraith KingFortuneSoul
Ember SpiritMikoto
Marskpii
WeaverHyde
BaneFly
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 62%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2