BetBoom Dacha Belgrade 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 3:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Kukuysloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Phoenixoften banned
Ponyo · 16 games
Morphlingoften banned
Akashi · 13 games
Razoroften banned
CHYuan · 13 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
CHYuan · 12 games
Marsoften banned
Ws · 11 games
Tinyoften banned
Jhocam · 10 games
Crystal Maiden
Ponyo · 9 games
Mirana
Jhocam · 9 games
Kukuys
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
351 picks · 337 bans
Jakiro
350 picks · 259 bans
Hoodwink
347 picks · 402 bans
Pangolier
324 picks · 497 bans
Snapfire
295 picks · 263 bans
Sven
292 picks · 305 bans
Windranger
281 picks · 392 bans
Dragon Knight
280 picks · 453 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 73%
Hero pool strength53% Kukuys
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:2
Talon Esports 57%Kukuys 43%
The model gave 57% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 9:50.
Game 2prediction missed17:29
Talon Esports 57%Kukuys 43%
The model gave 57% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Kukuys in 36:30.
Game 3prediction missed12:19
Talon Esports 57%Kukuys 43%
The model gave 57% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Kukuys in 41:52.
Game 4prediction correct32:29
Talon Esports 57%Kukuys 43%
The model gave 57% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 51:25.
Game 5prediction correct20:6
Talon Esports 57%Kukuys 43%
The model gave 57% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 26:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 57%
Series resultTalon Esports 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5