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PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Bane
Banesignature
Hyde · 11 games
64%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Q · 11 games
55%
Mars
Marssignature
kpii · 11 games
64%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 9 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kpii · 9 games
78%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 9 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 9 games
78%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
23savage · 8 games
63%

LGD Gaming

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 11 games
73%
Doom
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 11 games
73%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 11 games
91%
Tiny
Tinysignature
XinQ · 11 games
64%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
y` · 11 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 10 games
60%
Razor
Razorsignature
Faith_bian · 10 games
80%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Ame · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
645 picks · 465 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
443 picks · 964 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
377 picks · 451 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
364 picks · 189 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
340 picks · 567 bans
47%
Marci
Marci
328 picks · 649 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
315 picks · 433 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
302 picks · 591 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:33
Talon Esports 31%LGD Gaming 69%
The model gave 69% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 31:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorblade23savage
47% · 159 games48% · 110 games
Phantom LancerAme
Phantom Lancer
Doom
Doomkpii
54% · 88 games49% · 327 games
PangolierNothingToSay
Pangolier
Tiny
TinyMikoto
47% · 251 game50% · 248 games
RazorFaith_bian
Razor
Marci
MarciXepher
51% · 83 games50% · 90 games
Earth SpiritXinQ
Earth Spirit
Bane
BaneHyde
58% · 270 games47% · 76 games
Dazzley`
Dazzle
Game 2prediction correct20:32
Talon Esports 34%LGD Gaming 66%
The model gave 66% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 34:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMikoto
41% · 111 games45% · 75 games
Phantom LancerAme
Phantom Lancer
Monkey King
Monkey King23savage
59% · 141 game39% · 37 games
PudgeNothingToSay
Pudge
Death Prophet
Death Prophetkpii
57% · 123 games49% · 293 games
RazorFaith_bian
Razor
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinXepher
57% · 68 games56% · 60 games
Cheny`
Chen
Snapfire
SnapfireHyde
52% · 145 games46% · 123 games
MarciXinQ
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 81%
Series resultLGD Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2