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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:1
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Moodeng Warriorsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 33 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 28 games
61%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Mikoto · 26 games
65%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jhocam · 21 game
43%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ws · 20 games
65%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Ws · 19 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 19 games
47%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 19 games
68%

Moodeng Warriors

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Jabz · 3 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
423 · 3 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
423 · 3 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 3 games
100%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Jabz · 3 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Oli · 2 games
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
JT- · 2 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Oli · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
514 picks · 691 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
476 picks · 600 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
476 picks · 566 bans
56%
Muerta
Muerta
476 picks · 405 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
455 picks · 552 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
436 picks · 799 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
432 picks · 952 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
399 picks · 233 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 70%
Hero pool strength51% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:0
Talon Esports 62%Moodeng Warriors 38%
The model gave 62% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 21:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackNatsumi
45% · 168 games53% · 206 games
Alchemist423
Alchemist
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMikoto
41% · 213 games46% · 146 games
DawnbreakerJT-
Dawnbreaker
Abaddon
AbaddonWs
52% · 23 games59% · 198 games
PuckAbed
Puck
Clockwerk
ClockwerkJhocam
46% · 255 games62% · 113 games
ChenOli
Chen
Zeus
ZeusKuku
44% · 63 games58% · 59 games
RikiJabz
Riki
Game 2prediction missed17:20
Talon Esports 64%Moodeng Warriors 36%
The model gave 64% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Moodeng Warriors in 38:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWs
51% · 295 games52% · 96 games
Lifestealer423
Lifestealer
Monkey King
Monkey KingMikoto
46% · 242 games46% · 126 games
LinaAbed
Lina
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNatsumi
48% · 211 games53% · 242 games
MagnusJT-
Magnus
Muerta
MuertaJhocam
49% · 329 games52% · 390 games
ClockwerkJabz
Clockwerk
Zeus
ZeusKuku
52% · 138 games50% · 361 game
PhoenixOli
Phoenix
Game 3prediction correct21:14
Talon Esports 64%Moodeng Warriors 36%
The model gave 64% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 41:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMikoto
47% · 156 games55% · 45 games
Broodmother423
Broodmother
Lifestealer
LifestealerNatsumi
48% · 155 games50% · 274 games
PangolierAbed
Pangolier
Lycan
LycanWs
56% · 104 games51% · 87 games
Sand KingJT-
Sand King
Phoenix
PhoenixKuku
52% · 432 games51% · 240 games
ClockwerkJabz
Clockwerk
Riki
RikiJhocam
48% · 43 games45% · 244 games
BatriderOli
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 75%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3