Riyadh Masters 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:1series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Natus Vincereloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Tinyoften banned
Mikoto · 27 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Jhocam · 24 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Mikoto · 23 games
Doomoften banned
Ws · 21 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 21 game
Linasignature
Mikoto · 21 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 21 game
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 19 games
Natus Vincere
Tinysignature
Sancity · 25 games
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 25 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Ari · 20 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaori · 19 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 18 games
Magnussignature
BOOM · 18 games
Pangolieroften banned
Sancity · 14 games
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
483 picks · 525 bans
Shadow Shaman
464 picks · 507 bans
Ringmaster
410 picks · 213 bans
Tusk
374 picks · 367 bans
Jakiro
369 picks · 253 bans
Terrorblade
367 picks · 786 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 530 bans
Storm Spirit
340 picks · 507 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 61%
Hero pool strength50% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:31
Talon Esports 44%Natus Vincere 56%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 51:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade23savage
Abaddongotthejuice
Queen of PainMikoto
Shadow FiendNiku
Primal BeastWs
Pangolierpma
MarciJhocam
DazzleRiddys
BaneKuku
Shadow ShamanZayac
Game 2prediction missed29:21
Talon Esports 43%Natus Vincere 57%
The model gave 57% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 43:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback23savage
Svengotthejuice
LinaMikoto
PuckNiku
PangolierWs
Centaur Warrunnerpma
SilencerKuku
DazzleRiddys
RikiJhocam
Shadow ShamanZayac
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2