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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Neon Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Akashi · 20 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
CHYuan · 14 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 13 games
69%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Ponyo · 12 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Jhocam · 11 games
64%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
CHYuan · 11 games
64%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
CHYuan · 10 games
90%
Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 10 games
70%

Neon Esports

Mars
Marsoften banned
JG · 17 games
41%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Bombi · 13 games
46%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Bombi · 8 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ken · 8 games
38%
Techies
Techiessignature
Bombi · 8 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 7 games
43%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ken · 7 games
57%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Bombi · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
446 picks · 720 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
420 picks · 673 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
416 picks · 330 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
403 picks · 360 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
400 picks · 522 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
396 picks · 879 bans
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
374 picks · 166 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
374 picks · 178 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 55%
Hero pool strength59% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total72% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:41
Talon Esports 60%Neon Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 54:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomWs
43% · 114 games58% · 174 games
LeshracKen
Leshrac
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCHYuan
56% · 77 games50% · 206 games
Centaur WarrunnerJG
Centaur Warrunner
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerAkashi
33% · 11 games49% · 27 games
Winter WyvernBombi
Winter Wyvern
Mirana
MiranaJhocam
52% · 74 games
Rubick
RubickPonyo
40% · 131 game
Game 2prediction correct26:4
Talon Esports 63%Neon Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 35:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenAkashi
53% · 99 games54% · 170 games
PuckKen
Puck
Death Prophet
Death ProphetWs
58% · 53 games49% · 143 games
MarsJG
Mars
Timbersaw
TimbersawCHYuan
46% · 99 games42% · 120 games
HoodwinkBombi
Hoodwink
Mirana
MiranaPonyo
50% · 99 games
Tusk
TuskJhocam
50% · 83 games
Game 3prediction missed21:55
Talon Esports 61%Neon Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 45:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaAkashi
57% · 67 games48% · 163 games
Void SpiritKen
Void Spirit
Timbersaw
TimbersawWs
55% · 104 games47% · 242 games
Centaur WarrunnerJG
Centaur Warrunner
Puck
PuckCHYuan
50% · 126 games38% · 57 games
Winter WyvernBombi
Winter Wyvern
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritPonyo
57% · 102 games
Tusk
TuskJhocam
55% · 63 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 72%
Series resultNeon Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3