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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusksignature
Q · 28 games
61%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 22 games
82%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 22 games
77%
Rubick
Rubick
Q · 19 games
58%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 17 games
71%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 17 games
82%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Oli · 15 games
53%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
23savage · 14 games
64%

Nigma Galaxy

Disruptor
Disruptor
GH · 11 games
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
KuroKy · 11 games
36%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
38%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
25%
Enchantress
Enchantress
KuroKy · 8 games
38%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 8 games
38%
Rubick
Rubick
GH · 7 games
14%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
965 picks · 663 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
659 picks · 465 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
582 picks · 933 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
551 picks · 439 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
528 picks · 528 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
518 picks · 344 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
503 picks · 1096 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
472 picks · 351 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 26%
Hero pool strength66% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:27
Talon Esports 74%Nigma Galaxy 26%
The model gave 74% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 35:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
Slark23savage
54% · 44 games64% · 41 game
Anti-MageMiracle-
Anti-Mage
Puck
PuckMikoto
51% · 182 games48% · 180 games
Templar AssassinSumaiL
Templar Assassin
Death Prophet
Death ProphetJabz
54% · 181 game48% · 254 games
DoomMinD_ContRoL
Doom
Tusk
TuskQ
46% · 176 games48% · 78 games
Shadow DemonGH
Shadow Demon
Silencer
SilencerOli
54% · 71 game40% · 101 game
LichKuroKy
Lich
Game 2prediction missed19:29
Talon Esports 73%Nigma Galaxy 27%
The model gave 73% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 48:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorblade23savage
48% · 93 games62% · 297 games
LeshracSumaiL
Leshrac
Doom
DoomJabz
48% · 120 games53% · 151 game
SlarkMiracle-
Slark
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMikoto
45% · 208 games48% · 100 games
UnderlordMinD_ContRoL
Underlord
Tiny
TinyQ
46% · 335 games50% · 189 games
PhoenixKuroKy
Phoenix
Silencer
SilencerOli
46% · 112 games52% · 131 game
IoGH
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 87%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2