The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO5
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 3:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Polaris Esportsloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Bane
Hyde · 15 games
Marcioften banned
Q · 15 games
Death Prophetoften banned
kpii · 14 games
Tiny
Xepher · 14 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 14 games
Faceless Voidsignature
23savage · 13 games
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 12 games
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 12 games
Polaris Esports
Pangoliersignature
Mac · 19 games
Tiny
Boomy · 18 games
Marsoften banned
Nevermine · 15 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Boomy · 13 games
Marcioften banned
Boomy · 13 games
Snapfiresignature
Boomy · 13 games
Death Prophetsignature
Mac · 12 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Natsumi · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
694 picks · 547 bans
Dawnbreaker
495 picks · 644 bans
Marci
493 picks · 762 bans
Puck
470 picks · 976 bans
Winter Wyvern
370 picks · 424 bans
Zeus
320 picks · 401 bans
Snapfire
298 picks · 152 bans
Razor
295 picks · 542 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total54% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:22
Talon Esports 52%Polaris Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 34:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling23savage
LinaMac
TinyMikoto
PudgeNatsumi
Primal Beastkpii
ViperForce
RubickQ
OmniknightEyyou
UndyingHyde
MarciBoomy
Game 2prediction correct25:5
Talon Esports 54%Polaris Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 37:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark23savage
Phantom LancerNatsumi
PangolierMikoto
Ember SpiritMac
Undyingkpii
ViperForce
Shadow DemonHyde
MarciBoomy
EarthshakerQ
OmniknightEyyou
Game 3prediction missed11:25
Talon Esports 53%Polaris Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 43:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade23savage
LinaMac
BatriderMikoto
DoomNatsumi
Undyingkpii
ViperForce
TinyQ
MarciBoomy
EnchantressHyde
OracleEyyou
Game 4prediction correct21:6
Talon Esports 52%Polaris Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 38:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark23savage
LunaNatsumi
InvokerMikoto
Ember SpiritMac
Marcikpii
UndyingForce
Queen of PainQ
Keeper of the LightBoomy
DisruptorHyde
OmniknightEyyou
Game 5prediction correct19:9
Talon Esports 51%Polaris Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 49:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom23savage
Queen of PainMac
PangolierMikoto
PudgeNatsumi
Visagekpii
UndyingForce
MarciQ
Keeper of the LightBoomy
DazzleHyde
BaneEyyou
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 54%
Series resultTalon Esports 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5