The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
T1loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Bane
Hyde · 15 games
Marcioften banned
Q · 15 games
Tiny
Xepher · 15 games
Death Prophetoften banned
kpii · 14 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 13 games
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 12 games
Faceless Voidsignature
23savage · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 11 games
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
702 picks · 553 bans
Dawnbreaker
499 picks · 648 bans
Marci
495 picks · 768 bans
Puck
474 picks · 985 bans
Winter Wyvern
370 picks · 421 bans
Zeus
322 picks · 397 bans
Snapfire
303 picks · 154 bans
Razor
296 picks · 550 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 56%
Hero pool strength54% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:32
Talon Esports 48%T1 52%
The model gave 52% on T1 — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 56:30.
Game 2prediction missed33:18
Talon Esports 48%T1 52%
The model gave 52% on T1 — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 46:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 52%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2