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BetBoom Dacha Dubai 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Asterloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Yowe · 10 games
70%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
23savage · 10 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
23savage · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 9 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Oli · 9 games
44%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Ponyo · 8 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
Mikoto · 8 games
25%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
23savage · 8 games
38%

Team Aster

Lion
Lionsignature
Kaka · 15 games
67%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Kaka · 13 games
62%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
SumaiL · 12 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 10 games
60%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Monet · 10 games
70%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Fantasy · 9 games
100%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Monet · 9 games
44%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Xxs · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
253 picks · 431 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
225 picks · 357 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
211 picks · 283 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
208 picks · 193 bans
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
207 picks · 98 bans
54%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
188 picks · 359 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
184 picks · 510 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:32
Talon Esports 45%Team Aster 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 51:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawWs
48% · 147 games48% · 185 games
Morphlingpoyoyo
Morphling
Puck
PuckCHYuan
51% · 141 game49% · 127 games
Centaur Warrunner生死
Centaur Warrunner
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinAkashi
49% · 162 games59% · 210 games
Primal BeastEcho
Primal Beast
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonJhocam
48% · 187 games51% · 93 games
LionFantasy
Lion
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritPonyo
45% · 115 games53% · 137 games
GrimstrokeFrisk
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct7:24
Talon Esports 47%Team Aster 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 32:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoAkashi
55% · 13 games49% · 185 games
Morphlingpoyoyo
Morphling
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinCHYuan
52% · 166 games43% · 98 games
Dragon KnightEcho
Dragon Knight
Timbersaw
TimbersawWs
49% · 177 games49% · 116 games
Centaur Warrunner生死
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonJhocam
54% · 151 game46% · 214 games
SnapfireFrisk
Snapfire
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorPonyo
60% · 192 games43% · 86 games
LionFantasy
Lion
Game 3prediction missed24:10
Talon Esports 47%Team Aster 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 25:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaAkashi
43% · 70 games62% · 124 games
Faceless Voidpoyoyo
Faceless Void
Timbersaw
TimbersawCHYuan
53% · 109 games47% · 27 games
Pudge生死
Pudge
Mars
MarsWs
45% · 72 games52% · 97 games
Dragon KnightEcho
Dragon Knight
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterJhocam
53% · 52 games47% · 95 games
LionFrisk
Lion
Undying
UndyingPonyo
37% · 120 games58% · 80 games
GrimstrokeFantasy
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 57%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3