?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Kukuyswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Phoenix
Phoenix
Ponyo · 16 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Kuku · 15 games
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Akashi · 15 games
40%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kuku · 14 games
43%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 12 games
67%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Jhocam · 12 games
58%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Jhocam · 11 games
73%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Akashi · 11 games
36%

Team Kukuys

Marci
Marcioften banned
Palos · 7 games
57%
Mirana
Mirana
Palos · 5 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jing · 5 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 4 games
75%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Natsumi · 3 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Jing · 3 games
33%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
Palos · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
436 picks · 578 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
374 picks · 391 bans
52%
Luna
Luna
324 picks · 387 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
321 picks · 452 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
302 picks · 577 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
287 picks · 156 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
271 picks · 326 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
260 picks · 769 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 71%
Hero pool strength54% Team Kukuys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:4
Talon Esports 67%Team Kukuys 33%
The model gave 67% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Team Kukuys in 48:15.
Game 2prediction missed6:24
Talon Esports 67%Team Kukuys 33%
The model gave 67% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Team Kukuys in 30:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 67%
Series resultTeam Kukuys 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2