PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Kukuysloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 34 games
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 29 games
Snipersignature
Mikoto · 26 games
Batrideroften banned
Jhocam · 21 game
Bristlebackoften banned
Ws · 20 games
Doomsignature
Ws · 20 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 20 games
Linasignature
Mikoto · 20 games
Team Kukuys
Shadow Demonsignature
Jing · 8 games
Marcioften banned
Palos · 7 games
Puckoften banned
Armel · 6 games
Queen of Painsignature
Armel · 6 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Natsumi · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 5 games
Mirana
Palos · 5 games
Morphlingoften banned
Abat · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
526 picks · 718 bans
Clockwerk
488 picks · 565 bans
Batrider
483 picks · 607 bans
Muerta
479 picks · 406 bans
Tiny
470 picks · 569 bans
Gyrocopter
440 picks · 797 bans
Magnus
439 picks · 972 bans
Lion
396 picks · 230 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 66%
Hero pool strength52% Talon Esports
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total86% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:9
Talon Esports 74%Team Kukuys 26%
The model gave 74% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 24:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PhoenixWs
Phantom AssassinAbat
LifestealerNatsumi
TinyArmel
InvokerMikoto
ZeusPonyo
VenomancerKuku
Bounty HunterJhocam
Game 2prediction correct31:8
Talon Esports 72%Team Kukuys 28%
The model gave 72% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 22:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterNatsumi
Queen of PainArmel
Ember SpiritMikoto
SlarkAbat
AbaddonWs
PhoenixPonyo
Shadow ShamanJhocam
BatriderKuku
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 86%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2