?
arrow_backBack to match
FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:1
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Liquidloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 30 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 25 games
64%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Mikoto · 24 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 20 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jhocam · 19 games
42%
Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 19 games
79%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ws · 18 games
72%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Jhocam · 18 games
61%

Team Liquid

Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 25 games
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 23 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SabeRLight- · 22 games
64%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 22 games
68%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 21 game
76%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 21 game
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
iNSaNiA · 20 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
471 picks · 411 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
454 picks · 558 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
442 picks · 549 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
426 picks · 537 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
421 picks · 777 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
411 picks · 444 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
410 picks · 230 bans
54%
Magnus
Magnus
395 picks · 843 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total65% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:30
Talon Esports 43%Team Liquid 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 43:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistNatsumi
51% · 222 games49% · 273 games
MorphlingmiCKe
Morphling
Lina
LinaMikoto
48% · 149 games53% · 189 games
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
Primal Beast
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeWs
44% · 218 games52% · 300 games
TinyNisha
Tiny
Pugna
PugnaKuku
55% · 232 games54% · 31 game
Bounty HunterBoxi
Bounty Hunter
Tusk
TuskJhocam
46% · 305 games50% · 333 games
ClockwerkiNSaNiA
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed36:17
Talon Esports 43%Team Liquid 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 34:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistNatsumi
60% · 195 games49% · 56 games
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
Nature's Prophet
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMikoto
57% · 100 games49% · 164 games
InvokerNisha
Invoker
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeWs
53% · 192 games43% · 310 games
PangolierSabeRLight-
Pangolier
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterJhocam
53% · 41 game47% · 226 games
PhoenixiNSaNiA
Phoenix
Batrider
BatriderKuku
46% · 416 games45% · 188 games
MuertaBoxi
Muerta
Game 3prediction missed39:17
Talon Esports 43%Team Liquid 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 37:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerNatsumi
51% · 162 games54% · 43 games
UrsamiCKe
Ursa
Lycan
LycanWs
49% · 72 games52% · 119 games
InvokerNisha
Invoker
Monkey King
Monkey KingMikoto
51% · 225 games44% · 119 games
MarsSabeRLight-
Mars
Pugna
PugnaKuku
54% · 182 games51% · 189 games
PhoenixiNSaNiA
Phoenix
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterJhocam
45% · 33 games48% · 204 games
BatriderBoxi
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 65%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3