The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:2series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Nemesiswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Tinyoften banned
Mikoto · 27 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 25 games
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 24 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Mikoto · 24 games
Doomsignature
Ws · 22 games
Linasignature
Mikoto · 22 games
Phoenix
Kuku · 22 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Jhocam · 22 games
Team Nemesis
Batrideroften banned
Jing · 3 games
Doomoften banned
Raven · 3 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Raven · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 3 games
Snapfire
Jing · 3 games
Tinyoften banned
Akashi · 3 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Raven · 2 games
Dark Willow
Jing · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
559 picks · 631 bans
Ringmaster
482 picks · 247 bans
Jakiro
457 picks · 427 bans
Terrorblade
396 picks · 838 bans
Storm Spirit
372 picks · 555 bans
Tusk
369 picks · 324 bans
Shadow Shaman
366 picks · 425 bans
Ancient Apparition
356 picks · 829 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 64%
Hero pool strength54% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:25
Talon Esports 69%Team Nemesis 31%
The model gave 69% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 44:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka23savage
Monkey KingAkashi
Storm SpiritMikoto
Death ProphetMac
Centaur WarrunnerWs
PangolierRaven
SlarkJhocam
Shadow ShamanJing
OracleKuku
Game 2prediction correct21:8
Talon Esports 73%Team Nemesis 27%
The model gave 73% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 29:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade23savage
Shadow FiendAkashi
TimbersawWs
Centaur WarrunnerRaven
KunkkaMikoto
TinyMac
Shadow ShamanJhocam
RubickJing
Naga SirenKuku
Game 3prediction missed22:31
Talon Esports 70%Team Nemesis 30%
The model gave 70% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 47:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom23savage
BatriderMac
Monkey KingMikoto
TinyAkashi
TimbersawWs
BeastmasterRaven
RubickJhocam
Shadow ShamanJing
Naga SirenKuku
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 85%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3