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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team SMGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusk
Q · 29 games
59%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 24 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 24 games
71%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 18 games
72%
Rubick
Rubick
Q · 17 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 16 games
81%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 16 games
81%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
23savage · 15 games
60%

Team SMG

Rubick
Rubick
Poloson · 15 games
47%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
MidOne · 13 games
69%
Mirana
Mirana
Poloson · 11 games
45%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boomy · 10 games
60%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
AhFu · 8 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MidOne · 7 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
Moon · 7 games
43%
Undying
Undyingsignature
AhFu · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1004 picks · 710 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
629 picks · 462 bans
52%
Disruptor
Disruptor
580 picks · 427 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
563 picks · 907 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
523 picks · 397 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
519 picks · 364 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
510 picks · 1205 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
500 picks · 1099 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Talon Esports
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total71% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:11
Talon Esports 60%Team SMG 40%
The model gave 60% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 25:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Siren23savage
51% · 149 games56% · 141 game
DoomMidOne
Doom
Alchemist
AlchemistMikoto
49% · 144 games44% · 317 games
TinyMoon
Tiny
Dark Seer
Dark SeerJabz
53% · 98 games44% · 399 games
RubickPoloson
Rubick
Techies
TechiesQ
50% · 123 games50% · 70 games
Skywrath MageAhFu
Skywrath Mage
Disruptor
DisruptorOli
56% · 413 games
Game 2prediction correct36:12
Talon Esports 60%Team SMG 40%
The model gave 60% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 31:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Siren23savage
53% · 94 games51% · 92 games
KunkkaMoon
Kunkka
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMikoto
44% · 121 game57% · 182 games
Monkey KingMidOne
Monkey King
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightQ
50% · 121 game53% · 276 games
MiranaPoloson
Mirana
Tidehunter
TidehunterJabz
47% · 62 games45% · 55 games
TechiesAhFu
Techies
Disruptor
DisruptorOli
45% · 207 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 71%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2