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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 29 games
69%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 23 games
65%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Mikoto · 22 games
73%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 20 games
50%
Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 19 games
79%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jhocam · 17 games
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Jhocam · 17 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 16 games
50%

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 38 games
61%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yatoro · 28 games
57%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rue · 27 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 23 games
74%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Larl · 22 games
59%
Tusk
Tusk
Miposhka · 22 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 19 games
79%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
487 picks · 425 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
451 picks · 528 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
445 picks · 551 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
441 picks · 562 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
434 picks · 232 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
420 picks · 781 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
387 picks · 434 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
384 picks · 585 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:24
Talon Esports 43%Team Spirit 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 32:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterNatsumi
49% · 380 games48% · 453 games
TinyYatoro
Tiny
Doom
DoomWs
49% · 263 games54% · 201 game
Monkey KingLarl
Monkey King
Invoker
InvokerMikoto
50% · 251 game49% · 239 games
MagnusCollapse
Magnus
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinJhocam
58% · 174 games38% · 141 game
LichMiposhka
Lich
Pugna
PugnaKuku
54% · 206 games50% · 240 games
Lionrue
Lion
Game 2prediction missed37:28
Talon Esports 44%Team Spirit 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 37:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackNatsumi
63% · 171 game44% · 39 games
SpectreYatoro
Spectre
Sniper
SniperMikoto
54% · 164 games45% · 145 games
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
Centaur Warrunner
Doom
DoomWs
49% · 289 games43% · 234 games
Dragon KnightLarl
Dragon Knight
Riki
RikiJhocam
64% · 6 games42% · 72 games
ZeusMiposhka
Zeus
Lich
LichKuku
57% · 106 games48% · 246 games
Batriderrue
Batrider
Game 3prediction correct15:23
Talon Esports 43%Team Spirit 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 34:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherWs
43% · 91 game53% · 247 games
MorphlingYatoro
Morphling
Sniper
SniperMikoto
49% · 144 games50% · 187 games
Primal BeastCollapse
Primal Beast
Bristleback
BristlebackNatsumi
56% · 184 games49% · 286 games
TinyLarl
Tiny
Lich
LichKuku
51% · 118 games45% · 81 game
Zeusrue
Zeus
Clockwerk
ClockwerkJhocam
51% · 368 games53% · 104 games
Elder TitanMiposhka
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 66%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3