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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:1
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The MongolZloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Kuku · 18 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Ponyo · 17 games
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Akashi · 17 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kuku · 16 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Ws · 15 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 13 games
46%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 13 games
62%
Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 12 games
83%

The MongolZ

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Hishge · 4 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Wonder'boy · 3 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
JG · 3 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Wonder'boy · 3 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Hishge · 2 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
JG · 2 games
0%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
JG · 1 game
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
JG · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
481 picks · 659 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
440 picks · 511 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
378 picks · 557 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
367 picks · 189 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
341 picks · 376 bans
51%
Luna
Luna
323 picks · 429 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
320 picks · 245 bans
50%
Invoker
Invoker
318 picks · 882 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 44%
Hero pool strength56% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total88% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:22
Talon Esports 75%The MongolZ 25%
The model gave 75% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 49:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusNatsumi
58% · 107 games44% · 99 games
LinaWonder'boy
Lina
Sniper
SniperMikoto
57% · 37 games45% · 222 games
MarsJG
Mars
Tidehunter
TidehunterWs
52% · 36 games54% · 145 games
MuertaHishge
Muerta
Phoenix
PhoenixKuku
46% · 161 game
Tusk
TuskJhocam
51% · 125 games
Game 2prediction missed55:62
Talon Esports 73%The MongolZ 27%
The model gave 73% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by The MongolZ in 1:13:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorNatsumi
46% · 61 game44% · 230 games
PuckWonder'boy
Puck
Lina
LinaMikoto
57% · 36 games50% · 37 games
Night StalkerJG
Night Stalker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWs
46% · 95 games55% · 72 games
Nyx AssassinHishge
Nyx Assassin
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonJhocam
50% · 130 games
Lich
LichKuku
65% · 17 games
Game 3prediction correct48:20
Talon Esports 75%The MongolZ 25%
The model gave 75% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 46:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinNatsumi
43% · 105 games59% · 71 game
Death ProphetWonder'boy
Death Prophet
Monkey King
Monkey KingMikoto
59% · 88 games45% · 394 games
PangolierJG
Pangolier
Mars
MarsWs
44% · 137 games45% · 21 game
Bounty HunterHishge
Bounty Hunter
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiKuku
52% · 23 games
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonJhocam
56% · 133 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 88%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3