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PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Thunder Awakenloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Bane
Bane
Hyde · 12 games
58%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Q · 12 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
kpii · 11 games
64%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kpii · 10 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 10 games
60%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 9 games
100%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Hyde · 9 games
56%
Tiny
Tiny
Q · 9 games
44%

Thunder Awaken

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Sacred · 27 games
74%
Mars
Marssignature
DarkMago · 25 games
76%
Tiny
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 23 games
78%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 21 game
81%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 19 games
79%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Sacred · 16 games
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 15 games
73%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Sacred · 15 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
646 picks · 471 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
451 picks · 968 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
378 picks · 460 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
367 picks · 189 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
341 picks · 562 bans
47%
Marci
Marci
334 picks · 653 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
316 picks · 430 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
303 picks · 587 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 66%
Hero pool strength61% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:46
Talon Esports 50%Thunder Awaken 50%
The model gave 50% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 38:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusa23savage
56% · 141 game52% · 122 games
Chaos KnightPakazs
Chaos Knight
Death Prophet
Death Prophetkpii
50% · 188 games49% · 247 games
PangolierSacred
Pangolier
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMikoto
42% · 173 games50% · 266 games
SnapfireMatthew
Snapfire
Marci
MarciXepher
47% · 93 games49% · 48 games
DazzlePanda
Dazzle
Disruptor
DisruptorHyde
57% · 88 games
Game 2prediction missed41:28
Talon Esports 48%Thunder Awaken 52%
The model gave 52% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 40:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
Sniper23savage
42% · 12 games48% · 96 games
Night StalkerPakazs
Night Stalker
Puck
PuckMikoto
46% · 127 games51% · 34 games
VenomancerSacred
Venomancer
Visage
Visagekpii
53% · 25 games36% · 100 games
ZeusMatthew
Zeus
Monkey King
Monkey KingXepher
58% · 112 games56% · 72 games
Ogre MagiPanda
Ogre Magi
Dazzle
DazzleHyde
68% · 26 games
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 53%
Accuracy by game1 of 2