Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
XERXIAloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Tusk
Q · 29 games
Tinysignature
Q · 25 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 24 games
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 18 games
Rubick
Q · 17 games
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 16 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 16 games
Monkey Kingsignature
23savage · 15 games
XERXIA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
717 picks · 603 bans
Disruptor
555 picks · 489 bans
Beastmaster
441 picks · 1070 bans
Doom
425 picks · 733 bans
Ember Spirit
405 picks · 1011 bans
Tiny
386 picks · 367 bans
Mirana
375 picks · 202 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 817 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 64%
Hero pool strength60% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:20
Talon Esports 77%XERXIA 23%
The model gave 77% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 44:19.
Game 2prediction correct30:8
Talon Esports 77%XERXIA 23%
The model gave 77% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 26:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 77%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2