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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yakult Brotherswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Jhocam · 21 game
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Jhocam · 18 games
33%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Jhocam · 18 games
61%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ws · 15 games
60%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ws · 15 games
47%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ws · 14 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Kuku · 14 games
29%

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Emo · 30 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 18 games
50%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Oli · 18 games
61%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 17 games
53%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
BEYOND · 14 games
64%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 14 games
71%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
flyfly · 14 games
43%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
flyfly · 13 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
391 picks · 354 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
348 picks · 176 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
341 picks · 863 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
297 picks · 345 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
282 picks · 248 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
282 picks · 128 bans
52%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
280 picks · 796 bans
48%
Batrider
Batrider
272 picks · 683 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total56% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:20
Talon Esports 52%Yakult Brothers 48%
The model gave 52% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 31:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet23savage
51% · 197 games47% · 257 games
Medusaflyfly
Medusa
Pangolier
PangolierWs
45% · 298 games51% · 261 game
Dark Seerzeal
Dark Seer
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMikoto
51% · 267 games48% · 185 games
LeshracEmo
Leshrac
Tusk
TuskQ
51% · 309 games55% · 318 games
MagnusBoBoKa
Magnus
Pugna
PugnaOli
53% · 192 games48% · 242 games
DisruptorPoloson
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed10:21
Talon Esports 54%Yakult Brothers 46%
The model gave 54% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 31:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
Broodmother23savage
48% · 43 games46% · 72 games
LeshracEmo
Leshrac
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMikoto
54% · 199 games48% · 158 games
Dragon Knightflyfly
Dragon Knight
Undying
UndyingWs
48% · 128 games52% · 162 games
Batriderzeal
Batrider
Chen
ChenOli
62% · 128 games47% · 66 games
LycanBoBoKa
Lycan
Windranger
WindrangerQ
48% · 75 games44% · 115 games
DisruptorPoloson
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 56%
Series resultYakult Brothers 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2